Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canada: Who Knew So Much Has Been Going On?

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canada: Who Knew So Much Has Been Going On?

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another prevalent belief is that Canada forms an optimal currency area (OCA). The authors uncover three seri...

The Bayesian who knew too much

In several papers, John Norton has argued that Bayesianism cannot handle ignorance adequately due to its inability to distinguish between neutral and disconfirming evidence. He argued that this inability sows confusion in, e.g., anthropic reasoning in cosmology or the Doomsday argument, by allowing one to draw unwarranted conclusions from a lack of knowledge. Norton has suggested criteria for a...

The man who knew too much.

Trends in Nonstationary Multivariate Systems A Note on Joint Estimation of Common Cycles and Common Trends in Nonstationary Multivariate Systems

We provide a new method for jointly consistently estimating common trends and cycles in unit root nonstationary multivariate systems. We concentrate on the MA representation of the differenced data and we jointly impose the reduced rank restriction for the common cycles and the common trends on the MA representation coefficients.

The dramatic impact of Coronavirus outbreak on air quality: Has it saved as much as it has killed so far?

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported from Wuhan, China, on December 31st, 2019. As the number of coronavirus infections has exceeded 100,000 with toll deaths of about 5000 worldwide as of early March, 2020, scientists and researchers are racing to investigate the nature of this virus and evaluate the short and long term effects of this disease. Despite it...